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【直击华尔街】投资者需注意的五大技术巨变

考试动态 2020/12/31 13:54:48 来源:友课
文章摘要:
【直击华尔街】投资者需注意的五大技术巨变

[重点词汇]

sequencing n. [计] 排序;[计] 定序

cryptocurrencies 加密数字货币

convergences [数] 收敛

投资者需注意的五大技术巨变

Stand ready for the big fivetechnology convulsions reshaping markets

伍德:我们认为,DNA测序、机器人技术、能源存储、人工智能和区块链技术这五大创新的平台将改变全球经济。

The global economy appears to have entered a period of convulsive changes, some exceptionally good and others devastating, that could shape financial markets for years to come.

全球经济似乎已经进入了一个剧烈变化的时期——有些变化特别好,有些则是灾难性的——这些变化可能会在未来几年影响金融市场。

In Ark’s view, any company not investing aggressively in one or more of five major platforms of innovation will lose its way. In harm’s way are companies that have engineered their financial results to satisfy the short-term demands of short-sighted investors.

方舟认为,任何企业如不对五大“创新平台”(innovation platform)中的一个或多个进行积极投资,都将迷失方向。有些公司刻意让财务业绩满足只看眼前的投资者的短期要求,这样的公司将处境危险。

Those that have leveraged their balance sheets to buy back shares and pay dividends are at particular risk as they will have less balance sheet flexibility to invest in response to the technological shift.

那些利用杠杆扩大资产负债表以回购股票和派发股息的公司更是危险,因为它们的资产负债表弹性较小,没有多少余地进行使它们可以顺应技术转变的投资。

Seeded during the tech and telecom bubble more than 20 years ago, the five main platforms of innovation that we think will transform the global economy are: DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology. These involve 14 technologies including gene therapies, 3D printing, cloud computing, big data analytics, and cryptocurrencies.

我们认为将改变全球经济的五大创新平台是:DNA测序、机器人技术、能源存储、人工智能和区块链技术,它们都是在20多年前的科技和电信泡沫时期播下种子的。这五大平台涉及14项技术,包括基因疗法、3D打印、云计算、大数据分析和加密货币。

Importantly, they cut across economic sectors, posing problems for research efforts that are short term, siloed, and highly specialised. In our experience, most research departments of banks and fund managers are structured in that way, creating inefficiencies to be exploited as “convergences” create the new world order.

重要的是,它们涉及所有经济部门,给短期的、孤立的、高度专业化的调研工作造成问题。根据我们的经验,银行和基金管理公司的研究部门大多数都是以这种方式运转的,当各种技术的“融合”(convergence)创造出新的世界秩序时,这种方式就会导致低效率。

We think sectors most at risk of disintermediation are energy, industrials, consumer discretionary, communications services, healthcare, and financial services.

我们认为去中介化风险zui大的行业是能源、工业、非必需消费品、通信服务、医疗保健和金融服务。

As autonomous transport evolves, for example, autos, rails, and airlines are likely to capitulate to the convergence of robotics, energy storage, and artificial intelligence. Combined, these forces will collapse the cost structure of transport. Traditional healthcare is also likely to give way to the convergence of next generation DNA sequencing, artificial intelligence, and gene therapies.

例如,随着自动交通的发展,汽车、铁路和航空公司可能会让位于机器人、能源存储和人工智能的融合。在这几大力量的共同作用下,交通运输的成本结构将会瓦解。传统医疗也可能让位于下一代DNA测序、人工智能和基因疗法的融合。

Meanwhile, in traditional financial services, the middlemen that dominate today’s financial ecosystem face disintermediation thanks to application programming interfaces (APIs), social platforms and blockchain technology that will enable the convergence of business and consumer marketplaces.

与此同时,在传统金融服务领域,在当今金融生态系统中占主导地位的中间商将面临去中介化,这是由于应用程序编程接口(API)、社交平台和区块链技术将使企业和消费市场能够融合。

The convulsions will throw company forecasts for a loop, particularly in the developed world, which is saddled with mature infrastructure.

这些变化将对企业预测产生严重影响,尤其是在发达国家,成熟的基础设施成了它们的负担。

Broadly defined, the sectors at risk of disintermediation account for more than half of the S&P 500. Though at small bases today, we believe most innovation platforms are entering dramatic growth trajectories thanks to lower costs and higher productivity.

粗略划分的话,存在去中介化风险的行业占标普500指数(S&P 500)的一半以上。虽然现在基础还很小,但我们相信随着成本降低和生产率提高,大多数创新平台正在进入剧烈增长轨道。

For example, we forecast that in response to the 28 per cent cost decline in lithium-ion batteries for every cumulative doubling in units produced globally, prices will continue to fall, “turbocharging” electric vehicle sales.

例如,我们预测全球锂电池产量每扩大一倍,其成本就会下降28%,导致价格不断下跌,从而极大地推动电动汽车销量。

According to our estimates, EV sales will increase 20-fold globally during the next five years, from an estimated 2m and about 2.5 per cent of the market this year to 40m and about 45 per cent in 2025. Even if you think this ambitious, the direction of travel appears clear. It is one reason why Ark is a shareholder in Tesla.

据我们估计,未来5年全球电动汽车销量将增长20倍,今年估计销量为200万辆,市场份额约2.5%;2025年将增至4000万辆,市场份额约45%。即使你认为这过于雄心勃勃,但前进的方向是明确的。这也是方舟入股特斯拉(Tesla)的原因之一。

The bad news is that the more expensive petrol-powered cars that dominate the market today will lose almost half of their sales base. Moreover, if transport goes autonomous, as we believe it will, the auto market will continue to shrink as the capacity utilisation per car increases.

坏消息是,在当前市场占主导的较昂贵的汽油车将失去近一半的销售基础。此外,如果交通如我们所料实现了自动化,由于每辆车的容量利用率上升,汽车市场将继续萎缩。

More broadly, if our forecasts for the five innovation platform are near the mark, there will be an economic impact. Both growth in the value of goods and inflation are likely to surprise on the low side of expectations as market share shifts to the poorly measured digital world and as the “good” deflation associated with technology takes hold.

广泛地讲,如果我们对这五个创新平台的预测是准确的,它们将对经济产生影响。随着未被恰当估量的数字技术所占市场份额不断扩大,以及与技术相关的“好的”通缩站稳脚跟,商品价值和通胀的增长都可能低于预期。

We believe the winners will win in a big way but losers, particularly those that have levered balance sheets to satisfy certain stakeholders, will unwind. While risk-free interest rates are likely to remain low, spreads between companies on debt costs could widen dramatically as disruptive innovation — the likes of which we have not seen since the telephone, electricity, and the automobile burst on the scene in the Roaring Twenties — causes dislocation.

我们认为赢家将获得巨大的胜利,而输家将收缩业务,尤其是那些通过杠杆化资产负债表来满足某些利益相关者的企业。尽管无风险利率可能仍将维持在低位,但随着颠覆性创新——我们上一次看到这种创新还是在“咆哮的二十年代”(Roaring Twenties),电话、电和汽车问世——引发混乱,不同企业间,债务成本之差可能会急剧扩大。

So, investors beware. Innovation appears to be evolving at such a rapid pace that traditional equity benchmarks are being populated increasingly by so-called value traps — stocks that are “cheap” for a reason. Critical to investment success will be moving to the right side of change.

所以,投资者要小心了。创新似乎在以极快的速度迈进,以至于传统的股票基准中日益充斥着所谓的价值陷阱——这些股票之所以“便宜”是有原因的。投资要取得成功,关键将是在面对变化时要选择正确的方向。

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刘纪鹏:中国政法大学商学院院长、MBA教育中心主任、二级教授、博士生导师、高级研究员、高级经济师、注册会计师。

孟令星:中国政法大学商学院讲师、MBA教育中心招生部主任、清华大学商法学博士、中国人民大学经济法学博士后、美国哈佛大学进修学者。

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(本文转载自中国政法大学 ,如有侵权请电话联系0731-84213616)

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